Saturday, May 5, 2012

Injecting Some Sanity into Speculation

Two questions must be asked, and those questions aren't about the cap

For teams whose NHL seasons have ended—and even for some teams whose seasons have yet to end—speculation has already begun. Speculation about free agents staying or leaving. Speculation about trades. Speculation about the upcoming CBA and the salary cap and how that will impact which players will remain with or leave certain teams.

Let's be honest. Most of this speculation is just that: speculation. It's idle speculation at best, and, for the most part, it's not based on any real knowledge. But, by starting with the salary cap, it's fundamentally wrong. Since speculation will always happen, let's speculate by asking the two questions teams should be asking themselves when constructing a roster:

Question 1: What's our timetable?

Question 2: What do we need to achieve our timetable?

The salary cap is the framework in which these questions get asked, but, fundamentally, the salary cap is just that: the framework in which everything happens. The hockey questions must be answered within the context of the salary cap, but the above questions are the questions teams must first and foremost ask themselves when they go about constructing their rosters.

The "What's our timetable?" question is critical. Because, if you're speculating about a trade between a team in "Win now while the opportunity is available" mode and a team that "Young and developing, but we're a couple of years from being a serious Cup contender," any "responsible" speculation should acknowledge the reality of teams in different circumstances and the different needs of a developing team and a team that's built to go capture the crown, now.

Which leads, of course, to the second question teams must ask themselves—and the reality that most idle speculation is just that precisely because that particular player or proposal is not going to help each team answer question 2 affirmatively.

So, let's talk about some of this "idle" speculation. A team built to win it all, and win it all now, based on this team's most recently playoff performance, needs to improve its defensive play and special teams. A team that's young and developing has lots of skills up front but has no one on defense who is in any way comparable to their young, offensive stars.

Now suggest a trade that improves the contender's offense while diminishing its defense. Now suggest a trade that meets a "nice to have" component for the young, developing team if it were a contending team, but not a truly "transformational" piece that takes that young and developing team to a contending team.

Now explain how this proposal would make sense for either organization--neither of which would be helping themselves to meet key areas of need.

BUT THE CAP!

Yet, if a hockey organization is wise, they're looking at the first two questions, and then they're figuring out how to deal with the cap constraints. The contender is looking at the reality that offense is not a problem, but defensive play certainly is, and so are special teams. If the contender is making a wise trade while remaining in "win it all now" mode, aren't they looking to improve areas of weakness rather than add to areas of strength?

Now, let's look at the young and developing organization, already rife with elite offensive talent. If one examines this team, they'll note there's not yet an elite defenseman on the team or in the pipeline. The team, as is, could be a couple of years away from seriously contending. The team could try to go and get an elite defenseman now—which is problematic because the small number of teams in "win now" mode that possess elite defensemen are likely going to want an elite defenseman to replace the one they're giving up, and you don't have an elite defenseman to offer them in return. Or your organization could draft an elite defenseman to grow up with the offensive talent up front. But, what you probably don't want to do is give up the elite talent that you might later need to obtain an elite defenseman in a trade for a player who's not going to meet your area of deepest need.

Simply stated, speculation that's based on solely on the salary cap misses huge points. It misses that the Pittsburgh Penguins, offensively, were fine and dandy; it misses that the Pittsburgh Penguins really need to fix special teams and defense if they hope to win another Stanley Cup. It misses the reality that the Edmonton Oilers' major need—now and for the future—isn't a Selke nominee (sure that would be nice), but an elite, minute-munching defenseman who can control the game at both ends of the ice. (The Selke nominee is a secondary need, but improving the defensemen themselves is more critical and would prove far more transformational to take the team to the next level.)

It is true, of course, that hockey organizations don't always behave rationally. It's true that the salary cap—whatever it winds up being in the new CBA—will always be the framework in which the hockey questions must be asked and answered.

But, when you're speculating about a player going here or going there, Hockey Consultant would dare to suggest you think like a wise hockey organization should and ask the hockey questions.

So, the next time you're talking about free agency or a trade, remember these questions:

  • What's the timetable?
  • What is needed to achieve that timetable?

More often than not, you're going to find most speculation is just that—speculation that is not likely to play out as speculated. Simply because, as it turns out, well-run hockey teams ask the hockey questions….and then try to make trades or sign free agents that will help them achieve their goals. And, more often than not, though you have to give to get, a team is not going to be giving up a player that helps them win if that team is not getting a return in their area of deepest need.


 

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